Realized price vs 200-week moving average
BTC close
$81,574
Realized price $53,837 · 200-week MA $66,562 · Oct 14, 2026
On Oct 14, 2026, bitcoin closed at $81,574: 52% above its realized price of $53,837 and 23% above its 200-week moving average of $66,562. The 200-week average is the higher of the two lines, 24% above realized price, as it has been since Dec 16, 2025.
- Realized price
- $53,837
- Close is 52% above it
- 200-week MA
- $66,562
- Close is 23% above it
- Closes below realized price
- 11%
- of days since Jun 17, 2015
- Closes below 200-week MA
- 9%
- of days since Jun 17, 2015
What realized price measures
What the network paid: each coin at the close of the day it last moved, averaged over all coins.
Add up every coin at the price it last moved at, divide by all coins in existence, and you get realized price. It changes only when coins move, or new ones are mined, at a different price. With the close below it, the average coin is worth less than it last moved at.
What the 200-week MA measures
Where price has been: the plain average of the last 1,400 daily closes.
Every day in the window counts the same, busy or quiet, and the line knows nothing about who holds which coins or what they paid. It spans about 3.8 years, so it moves slowly. Since it began on Jun 17, 2015 it has not fallen on a single day, while realized price fell on 33% of days.
How we compute them
Realized price from our own node, the 200-week MA from our own daily closes.
Realized price is realized cap ÷ all coins in existence, from walking every block on our Bitcoin Core node against our daily closes; coins that last moved before Aug 18, 2011, where those closes begin, count at zero. The 200-week MA is the mean of the trailing 1,400 closes, so it starts on Jun 17, 2015. Gaps are the close ÷ the line − 1 on the same day. The chart starts on Jun 17, 2015, the first day both lines exist.
Where bitcoin closed at each cycle low
Bitcoin closed below realized price at all three completed cycle lows. It closed below the 200-week moving average at one of the two completed cycle lows where it existed: Nov 21, 2022.
The low so far after the Oct 6, 2025 top, on Jun 30, 2026, closed 10% above realized price and 6.3% below the 200-week moving average.
| Event | Date | BTC close | Realized price | 200-week MA | Close vs realized | Close vs 200-week MA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle low | Jan 14, 2015 | $171 | $311 | — | -44.8% | — |
| Cycle low | Dec 15, 2018 | $3,180 | $4,600 | $3,165 | -30.9% | +0.5% |
| Cycle low | Nov 21, 2022 | $15,766 | $20,287 | $24,004 | -22.3% | -34.3% |
| Low since the last top | Jun 30, 2026 | $58,526 | $53,062 | $62,470 | +10.3% | -6.3% |
Each low is the lowest daily close between two cycle tops, in UTC. A dash means the 200-week MA did not exist yet: it needs 1,400 closes, so it starts on Jun 17, 2015. The latest low is provisional until a new cycle top confirms it.
Days below each line, top to top
A single close is a thin sample, so this counts every day price closed under each line across the whole cycle around each low, from the top before it to the top after it.
At the Dec 15, 2018 low bitcoin closed 0.5% above the 200-week moving average, but between the Dec 16, 2017 and Nov 8, 2021 tops it closed below it on 6 days, from Mar 12, 2020 to Mar 18, 2020.
| Cycle | Days below realized price | Days below 200-week MA |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2013 top to Dec 16, 2017 top | 302Oct 4, 2014 to Oct 22, 2015 | 30Aug 18, 2015 to Sep 30, 2015counted from Jun 17, 2015 |
| Dec 16, 2017 top to Nov 8, 2021 top | 140Nov 19, 2018 to Mar 18, 2020 | 6Mar 12, 2020 to Mar 18, 2020 |
| Nov 8, 2021 top to Oct 6, 2025 top | 179Jun 13, 2022 to Jan 12, 2023 | 317Jun 14, 2022 to Oct 15, 2023 |
| Since the Oct 6, 2025 top | 0 | 26Jun 5, 2026 to Aug 16, 2026 |
Under each count: the first and last day it happened, which need not be one unbroken stretch.