MVRV vs MVRV Z-Score

MVRV ratio · MVRV Z-Score

1.52× · 0.89

Readings for Oct 14, 2026

On Oct 14, 2026, bitcoin's MVRV ratio is 1.52: market cap divided by realized cap, so the average coin is worth 52% more than it last moved at. The MVRV Z-Score is 0.89: the same gap, market cap minus realized cap, divided by the standard deviation of every daily market cap since Aug 18, 2011.

Side by side

The MVRV ratio and the MVRV Z-Score compared
	MVRV ratio	MVRV Z-Score
Formula	Market cap ÷ realized cap	(Market cap − realized cap) ÷ standard deviation of market cap
On Oct 14, 2026	1.52× = $1.64T ÷ $1.08T	0.89 = ($1.64T − $1.08T) ÷ $628B
Against its own history	Higher than on 36% of days since 2011	Higher than on 38% of days since 2011
Neutral line	1: market value equals realized value	0: the same moment, since the gap is zero
At our cycle lows	0.55× to 0.78×	-0.57 to -0.31
At our cycle tops	2.29× to 4.73×	2.48 to 8.71
What moves it	Price, and coins moving or being mined at a new price, which changes realized cap	The same two caps, plus the deviation, which takes in every new daily market cap
Settings	None: any source with the same realized cap gets the same ratio	The days the deviation covers. Ours: every day since Aug 18, 2011, never revised

Cycle ranges cover the four tops and three completed lows in our price history. On all 5,508 days with both readings, MVRV was above 1 exactly when the Z-Score was above 0.

Why they can disagree

The Z-Score is the MVRV gap scaled by realized cap ÷ the deviation, and that factor moves every day.

Divide the Z-Score by (MVRV − 1) and what is left is realized cap ÷ the standard deviation. At the four tops it read 1.67, 2.57, 1.84 and 1.93; on Oct 14, 2026 it is 1.72. It has not fallen at every top: the deviation grows as market cap grows, but so does realized cap. One MVRV, many Z-Scores: on the 43 days since 2011 when the ratio sat within 0.01 of today's 1.52×, the Z-Score ranged from 0.66 (May 20, 2014) to 1.00 (Nov 21, 2025).

Which one to read

The ratio for how far price sits from the cost basis, the Z-Score for how big that gap is next to past swings.

The ratio reads in plain terms: 1.52× means the average coin is worth 52% more than it last moved at. It has no settings, so it lines up with any source that uses the same realized cap. The Z-Score depends on which days the deviation covers, and sources that pick different windows print different Z-Scores for the same day. Across cycles they can even rank the same days in opposite order, as the 2013 and 2017 tops in the table below show.

How we compute them

Both caps from our own node and daily closes; the Z-Score’s deviation from an expanding window.

Market cap is the daily close times every coin in existence. Realized cap values each coin at the close of the day it last moved, from walking every block on our Bitcoin Core node; coins that last moved before Aug 18, 2011, where our price history starts, count at zero. The deviation covers every daily market cap from Aug 18, 2011 up to the day plotted, so each Z-Score uses only data that existed that day and never changes later. The Z-Score starts on Sep 16, 2011, once 30 days of market caps exist, and the chart starts there for both lines.

Both at each cycle top and low

The last column divides the Z-Score by the ratio's distance from 1. Since MVRV − 1 = (market cap − realized cap) ÷ realized cap, that quotient equals realized cap ÷ the standard deviation: how many Z-Score points one full unit of MVRV above 1 was worth on the day.

MVRV reads the 2013 top higher than the 2017 top (4.73× against 4.39×); the Z-Score reads 2017 higher (8.71 against 6.22).

At every top in the table, the quotient was higher than at the lows on either side of it.

Both at each cycle top and low
Event	Date	BTC close	MVRV ratio	MVRV Z-Score	Z ÷ (MVRV − 1)
Cycle top	Dec 4, 2013	$1,132	4.73×	6.22	1.67
Cycle low	Jan 14, 2015	$171	0.55×	-0.57	1.27
Cycle top	Dec 16, 2017	$19,188	4.39×	8.71	2.57
Cycle low	Dec 15, 2018	$3,180	0.69×	-0.47	1.52
Cycle top	Nov 8, 2021	$67,559	2.86×	3.42	1.84
Cycle low	Nov 21, 2022	$15,766	0.78×	-0.31	1.39
Cycle top	Oct 6, 2025	$124,728	2.29×	2.48	1.93
Low since the last top	Jun 30, 2026	$58,526	1.10×	0.18	1.73

Dates are UTC daily closes. The quotient is left blank where MVRV is within 0.05 of 1, where the division stops meaning anything. The latest low is provisional until a new cycle top confirms it.