Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score
Current Z-Score
0.89
Neutral
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score is 0.89 as of Oct 14, 2026, higher than on 38% of days since 2011. That is in the unshaded 0 to 3 band, between the green undervalued zone and the amber heated one.
- Current Z-Score
- 0.89
- All-time high
- 9.30
- Dec 7, 2017
- All-time low
- -0.57
- Jan 14, 2015
- Current zone
- Neutral
What it is
How far bitcoin's market value has run from what holders paid, measured in standard deviations.
Market Cap is the price times every coin in circulation. Realized Cap values each coin at the price it last moved, which approximates what the market actually paid. The Z-Score is the gap between the two, divided by the standard deviation of Market Cap, so the same dollar gap counts for less when bitcoin's value has been swinging hard. At 0 market value equals realized value.
What the zones mean
Historical observations from past cycles, not predictions.
Below 0 (green): market value under realized value. 0 to 3 (unshaded): the neutral band, where bitcoin has spent 78% of all days since 2011. 3 to 7 (amber): heated, typical of late bull markets. Above 7 (red): the extreme end of the scale. At the 2021 top it read 3.42, and at the 2025 top 2.48.
How it’s computed
(Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ the standard deviation of Market Cap, all from our own node.
Both caps come from walking every block on our Bitcoin Core node against our daily price history, which starts on 18 August 2011. The standard deviation covers every daily Market Cap from that date up to the day being plotted, so each point uses only data that existed at the time and never changes later. Some charts divide every day by one deviation taken over all of history instead, which shrinks the early readings and rewrites the past as new data arrives. The line starts once 30 days of history exist.
MVRV Z-Score at past cycle tops and lows
Each row is a day picked by our own price data: the highest daily close of each bull market, and the lowest close between two tops.
| Event | Date | BTC close | MVRV Z-Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle top | Dec 4, 2013 | $1,132 | 6.22 |
| Cycle low | Jan 14, 2015 | $171 | -0.57 |
| Cycle top | Dec 16, 2017 | $19,188 | 8.71 |
| Cycle low | Dec 15, 2018 | $3,180 | -0.47 |
| Cycle top | Nov 8, 2021 | $67,559 | 3.42 |
| Cycle low | Nov 21, 2022 | $15,766 | -0.31 |
| Cycle top | Oct 6, 2025 | $124,728 | 2.48 |
| Low since the last top | Jun 30, 2026 | $58,526 | 0.18 |
Dates are UTC daily closes. The latest low is provisional until a new cycle top confirms it.