Is Bitcoin undervalued?

Measures in the cheapest quarter of their history

1 of 5

0 in the most expensive quarter · 4 in the middle half · readings for Oct 14, 2026

As of Oct 14, 2026, one of the five on-chain valuation measures is in the cheapest quarter of its own history (price against the 200-week moving average), none is in the most expensive quarter, and four are in the middle half. All five sit between the readings they printed at past cycle lows and past cycle tops.

The five measures on Oct 14, 2026

Five bitcoin valuation measures on Oct 14, 2026, ranked against their own history and past cycles
Measure	Today	Higher than on	At cycle lows	At cycle tops	Where it sits
MVRV ratio	1.52×	36% of days since 2011	0.55× to 0.78×	2.29× to 4.73×	Middle half
MVRV Z-Score	0.89	38% of days since 2011	-0.57 to -0.31	2.48 to 8.71	Middle half
Mayer Multiple	1.13×	51% of days since 2012	0.39× to 0.71×	1.18× to 5.70×	Middle half
Price ÷ 200-week MA	1.23×	22% of days since 2015	0.66× to 1.00×	2.33× to 15.98×	Cheapest quarter
Supply in profit	67.2%	32% of days since 2011	39.3% to 44.5%	97.6% to 99.1%	Middle half

Cycle ranges span the readings on the four cycle tops and three completed cycle lows in our price history. The low since the Oct 6, 2025 top (Jun 30, 2026) is left out until a new top confirms it. Price ÷ 200-week MA starts on Jun 17, 2015, so its ranges cover two of the three lows and three of the four tops.

How the verdict works

Each measure is ranked against its own daily history, then the five are counted by quarter.

A measure's rank is the share of days, since its series began, with a lower reading than today. Below 25% puts today in the cheapest quarter of that history, 75% or more in the most expensive quarter, and anything between in the middle half. Ranks are rounded the way the table prints them, so a measure shown at 25% counts as middle half. The summary at the top counts the five by group. Nothing is weighted or averaged.

Where the numbers come from

Our own node for realized value and supply in profit, our own daily closes for everything priced.

MVRV ratio: market cap ÷ realized cap, where realized cap values every coin at the close of the day it last moved. MVRV Z-Score: (market cap − realized cap) ÷ the standard deviation of every daily market cap since Aug 18, 2011. Mayer Multiple: the close ÷ the average of the last 200 closes. Price ÷ 200-week MA: the close ÷ the average of the last 1,400 closes. Supply in profit: the share of coins whose last move happened at a lower price than the day's close. Realized cap and supply in profit come from walking every block on our Bitcoin Core node; prices are our daily closes since Aug 18, 2011, and coins that last moved before that date count at a cost of zero. Cycle tops are the highest close of each bull market, and lows the lowest close between two tops.

What these can’t tell you

They place today against the past and say nothing about what price does next.

Our history holds four cycle tops and three completed lows, so each range above rests on a handful of days. The MVRV ratio, the Mayer Multiple and price against the 200-week moving average each printed lower at every top than at the one before, so the high end of each range is the earliest top. The five also overlap: the MVRV ratio, the Z-Score and supply in profit are built on the same realized cost basis, and the Mayer Multiple and the 200-week ratio both divide price by its own average. Agreement between them counts for less than five separate readings would.

All five at past cycle tops and lows

The same five measures on the days our price data picks as turning points: the highest daily close of each bull market, and the lowest close between two tops.

All five at past cycle tops and lows
Event	Date	BTC close	MVRV ratio	MVRV Z-Score	Mayer Multiple	Price ÷ 200-week MA	Supply in profit
Cycle top	Dec 4, 2013	$1,132	4.73×	6.22	5.70×	—	97.6%
Cycle low	Jan 14, 2015	$171	0.55×	-0.57	0.39×	—	39.4%
Cycle top	Dec 16, 2017	$19,188	4.39×	8.71	3.71×	15.98×	98.2%
Cycle low	Dec 15, 2018	$3,180	0.69×	-0.47	0.51×	1.00×	39.3%
Cycle top	Nov 8, 2021	$67,559	2.86×	3.42	1.48×	3.97×	98.3%
Cycle low	Nov 21, 2022	$15,766	0.78×	-0.31	0.71×	0.66×	44.5%
Cycle top	Oct 6, 2025	$124,728	2.29×	2.48	1.18×	2.33×	99.1%
Low since the last top	Jun 30, 2026	$58,526	1.10×	0.18	0.78×	0.94×	45.6%

Dates are UTC daily closes. A dash means the measure had no value yet: the 200-week average needs 1,400 closes before its first reading. The latest low is provisional until a new cycle top confirms it.